{"text":[[{"start":14.93,"text":"Russia is on course for its first debt default this century. "},{"start":18.734,"text":"But this has less to do with cash running out than failure to pay creditors due to sanctions. "},{"start":23.451999999999998,"text":"Moscow has so far circumvented the west’s efforts to drain its coffers. "},{"start":27.582,"text":"Hence comes the urgency of G7 leaders’ efforts to step up the pressure. "}],[{"start":32.2,"text":"The imposition of sanctions on gold exports, Russia’s second largest after energy, is one part of their plan. "},{"start":38.717,"text":"That, though, is largely symbolic as Russian gold is already taboo in western markets. "},{"start":44.209,"text":"Potentially more damaging is a proposed price cap on Russian oil sales. "},{"start":48.539,"text":"A price ceiling established by a buyers’ cartel would hit Moscow’s receipts while dampening energy prices and inflation. "}],[{"start":55.39,"text":"Such an intervention could lessen the costs and improve the effectiveness of the west’s economic retaliation against Moscow. "},{"start":61.969,"text":"Its impact has so far been limited by Russia’s ability to find new buyers for the fossil fuels shunned by the west. "}],[{"start":68.69,"text":"Even before the EU agreed in May to phase-in a ban on seaborne Russian oil shipment, self-sanctioning by companies caused a sharp decline in shipments. "},{"start":76.957,"text":"But that was nearly offset by a 503,000 barrel per day increase in imports by Asian refiners to a March-May average of 1.5mn bpd, says Rystad Energy. "},{"start":87.312,"text":"Russia earned nearly $100bn from oil and gas exports during the first 100 days of the war in Ukraine. "}],[{"start":94.85,"text":"Russia has already been forced to discount its oil. "},{"start":98.104,"text":"At $34 per barrel, a historically wide negative spread for Russia’s Urals blend to Brent is telling. "},{"start":104.097,"text":"The G7 price cap proposal would doubtless seek to impose a lower price. "},{"start":108.61399999999999,"text":"Short term, Russia might retaliate by cutting fuel exports, potentially sending prices spiralling higher. "}],[{"start":115.92999999999999,"text":"A cut-off of natural gas supplies poses a real threat. "},{"start":119.58399999999999,"text":"Europe has halved its reliance on Russian gas to about 20 per cent of total supplies, according to consultancy ICIS. "},{"start":126.214,"text":"But it is running out of short-term fixes. "},{"start":128.66899999999998,"text":"Germany is particularly exposed. "}],[{"start":131.98999999999998,"text":"In the medium term, energy sanctions should weaken Russia, made worse by an eventual fall in oil and gas prices when an economic recession bites. "},{"start":140.25699999999998,"text":"It will be left with stranded assets in the form of its gas pipelines to Europe, while it could take at least five years to build a new one to China. "}],[{"start":148.52999999999997,"text":"In the meantime implementing sanctions will be painful. "},{"start":151.759,"text":"What started as an economic shock-and-awe campaign is turning into a war of attrition. "}],[{"start":156.19999999999996,"text":""}]],"url":"https://creatives.ftacademy.cn/album/75557-1656380165.mp3"}